It is common to see web site banners or other advertisements similar to the title of this article, touting the benefits of options trades with probabilities of success of 85-90%. Technically, these trades indeed have a high probability of success, i.e., if you placed a trade with the same parameters every month of the year, you should see about 10 or 11 trades per year be successful and one or two be losers. And the longer you traded in this way, the more likely your results would conform to these averages. (more…)